THE PROSPECT OF A CEASEFIRE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS

Israel and the Palestinian Authority are both unhappy over a request by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that they publish a memorandum of understanding on the progress of their final-status negotiations to date before U.S. President George Bush arrives on a visit next week.

More recently Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni stated that the two sides were unlikely to reach agreement on the core issues by the end of 2008. Abbas has threatened that he will resign if agreement is not reached in the next six months.

PRAYER TOPICS

1. Give thanks for the agreements about peace talks between Syria and Israel, between the factions in Lebanon and for the Egyptian mediation which promises and imminent Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

2. However, also pray about the uncertainties, fears, suspicions, secret agendas which, together with the influence of extremists on all sides could hinder success in these processes.

3.  Pray for peace in the region.

4. Pray for a breakthrough in the Israel-Palestinian peace talks.

Israel is concerned that Hamas will be unable to control smaller terrorist groups such as Islamic Jihad in a ceasefire. Palestinians claim that eleven such groups have agreed to the ceasefire in principle. Under the agreement, Israel would maintain the ceasefire even if there were terror attacks in the West Bank or Israel.  Hamas want the ceasefire to include the West Bank, at least in the near future. Israel would also re-open the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Israel, together with crossings for goods vehicles.

Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas Prime Minister says the organisation is ready to offer a long-term ceasefire (hudna) if Israel withdraws to the 1967 borders and allows a Palestinian state with its capital in Jerusalem and a right of return for Palestinian refugees.  This creates serious problems for Israel. Hamas refuses, however, to recognize Israel as a legitimate state.

FEARS & ADVANTAGES     There are, of course, fears in Israel that a temporary ceasefire will simply allow Hamas breathing space to strengthen its position in Gaza and its ability to attack Israel.  However it is also clear that Hamas has managed to keep up a steady campaign against Israel without a ceasefire. There is also concern that such a ceasefire could strengthen Hamas at the expense of the (Fatah) Palestinian President and negotiator Mahmoud Abbas.

One advantage for Israel is that a ceasefire would allow the re-opening of the Gaza crossings. The very negative effects of the Israeli sanctions on Gaza on the population have been condemned around the world. The United Nations‘ Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that lack of fuel will prevent distribution of food to 650,000 refugees, disrupt 214 schools and 19 health clinics. Hospitals have only a few days worth of fuel. Inoculations for 55,000 babies are threatened. Council rubbish collection has ceased.

Israel claims that Hamas itself is preventing the limited amount of fuel coming out of Israel from reaching the Gaza population, so creating an economic crisis for propaganda purposes, but Israeli and Palestinian human rights groups call on Israel to stop restricting fuel supplies.  Such a situation affecting one third of the Palestinian population militates against the Israel-Fatah peace negotiations.  A ceasefire would also be very welcome in the constantly bombarded Israeli town of Sderot and the western Negev region of Israel.

A few days ago Miyasar Abu Muatak and her four children Salah, 4, Musad, 18 months, Hanaa, 3, and Rudeynah, 6, sat down to breakfast when two Israeli missiles landed nearby and they were all killed. The IDF claims that the missiles didn’t directly cause the deaths but that they detonated bombs being carried by militants.

Some people in Israel, including Public Security Minister Avi Dichter, are critical of Israel’s potential agreement as legitimizing Hamas.  However former US President Jimmy Carter made a very controversial visit to the region, meeting up with Khaled Meshaal, the head of Hamas, in Damascus. He maintains that Israel must talk to everyone.

It must also be remembered that Hamas have been trying to improve their image in the West. They hired a media consultant who has helped them to portray themselves as a legitimate resistance movement, forced to attack Israel because of Palestinian suffering.  However anti-Israel terrorism continues and a number of Israelis have been killed in the last few weeks, including two civilians at the Nahal Oz fuel terminal through which Israel provides Gaza with fuel. Three IDF soldiers were ambushed and killed in Gaza. Rocket and mortar attacks have also continued.  Israeli intelligence forces anticipate attacks before Israel’s 60^th Independence Day on May 18^th.

Israel plans to approve employment of an extra 5000 Palestinian construction workers and it has re-opened the border after terrorist attacks to allow some trucks and some fuel oil through. The IDF is investigating allegations that 46 Palestinians were detained for no reason for 16 hours at a check point and their car tyres were punctured. They were not allowed to sit down or use toilet facilities.

The expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank continues to hinder the peace process. Mahmoud Abbas asked President George W. Bush to take action to discourage this.  Another hindrance is 500 IDF roadblocks on the West Bank which Israel has not yet removed. A joint Israeli-Palestinian report claims that ten such roadblocks have little security value and are unnecessarily hindering Palestinian trade.  The group behind the report included Palestinian officials, American experts and two IDF reserve officers who work in the West Bank Civil Administration.

Contact between Israel and Arab states continues. Qatar urged Israel to end the “crippling blockade of Gaza due to the difficult humanitarian situation” and to speed up the peace talks with the Palestinians.  Oman also has re-established relations with Israel.  Meetings have taken place with Bahrein and United Aran Emirates too.

 4.  For successful talks between Israel and Syria so that the threat of serious military conflict will recede.

Peace talks continue between Olmert and Abbas and between Ahmed Qureia (chief Palestinian negotiator) and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. All the core issues, including Jerusalem, Israeli settlements and the return of refugees are being discussed. On April 7^th Olmert and Abbas stated they intended to reach agreement by the end of 2008, despite hindrances such as terrorism and settlements.

Olmert appears to be hoping their will be some signing ceremony during President Bush’s visit to Israel in May. He is well aware that the new American President will be pre-occupied with major problems such as Iraq, Iran and the current economic crisis.

There are, though, some concerns about the weakness of Abbas and Fatah although one hopeful sign is co-operation between Fatah and Jordan (which certainly does not want a Hamas takeover in the West Bank).

The Americans have pressed Israel to remove 50 roadblocks on the West Bank. Olmert urged the IDF to act sympathetically to Palestinians at roadblocks. “Take all the Palestinians who were stripped at the roadblocks, only because there was concern that some of them were terrorists. Take all those who stand at the roadblocks where there is concern that a car bomb will pass through. This can become a boiling pot that can explode and cause terrible burns, and it can also be something else, which only depends on your understanding and abilities to conduct yourselves with wisdom and determination.”

However Israel is expanding the settlement of Ariel and is building homes for Jewish people in East Jerusalem, which hinders the peace process.

The number of rockets fired from Gaza has reduced, although Islamic Jihad fired 22 on March 26^th. Khaled Meshal, the head of Hamas, stated that the organisation supports a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, including Jerusalem. He also called for the return of Palestinian refugees. Hamas was ready for a ceasefire in Gaza and the West Bank.

However Hamas is building up its weaponry in Gaza. It has 20,000 fighters and has held training sessions in Gaza as well as Syria and Iran. It now has more advanced rockets and anti-tank weapons and is highly organised and prepared.  Hamas is also taking half of the fuel provided by Israel for military use and is thought to be intending to create a fuel crisis as a propaganda move against Israel.

A recent Israeli survey found that 84% of Palestinians support the Yeshiva attack, 64% support the rocket and suicide attacks. On the other hand, two thirds of Palestinians support the Arab peace plan, whereas 57% of Israelis reject it.

There is also extremism on the Israeli side. The senior rabbi in Safed called for the children of the yeshiva terrorist to be hanged from a tree. “It’s time to call a spade a spade name: Revenge, revenge, revenge. We mustn’t forget,” he said. Also, B’Tslelem,, the Israeli human rights organisation, published a report that the IDF had murdered four Palestinian activists in cold blood in Bethlehem.

There were heightened fears in Israel recently about an imminent war with Syria. But following this both sides made it quite clear that they have no intention of attacking each other. There are reports of numerous messages sent by Olmert to President Assad of Syria, but it appears that leading people in Syria reject any contact with Israel. The Americans also oppose peace talks between the two countries.  Ehud Barak, Israeli Defence Minister, said: “Syria is a weak country with many problems, but under certain conditions Israel will be willing to open the door to it. Israel considers negotiations with Syria and removing Syria from the circle of extremists as central to its policy.”

Another factor causing concern in the Middle East is the prospect of regime-change in Egypt. President Mubarak is almost 80 so change must happen soon. Egypt has excluded the extreme Islamist Muslim Brotherhood from the political process but in 2005 many of their candidates stood as independents and won 88 out of 454 parliamentary seats.  If Egypt changed its approach to issues like Hamas this could cause worrying changes in the region.

 PRAYER TOPICS 1.       For the continuation of Arab desires for peace between Israel and the Palestinians.  2.       For the success of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.  3.       For the curtailment of violence and the frustration of extremism.  4.       For peace talks between Israel and Syria.        5.   For stability in Egypt.

Israel ordered the IDF to show restraint in Gaza and the IDF withdrew ground troops and ceased air attacks. The rocket attacks from Gaza declined dramatically. There are Israeli reports that an informal, unofficial set of rules have been agreed during Condoleeza Rice’s recent visit. However Israel killed five wanted militants on the West Bank, risking retaliation from Islamic Jihad.

It seems that the IDF may have agreed to stop attacks in Gaza if the rocket attacks cease. However air attacks will take place (and have recently taken place) if rockets are fired at Sderot. Apparently the IDF has said it will mount ground attacks if Ashkelon is hit by rockets. The last such ground attack resulted in over 100 Palestinian deaths. It is likely that Hamas has reduced its attacks partly due to pressure from Egypt.  General Omar Suleiman, Egyptian chief of intelligence, is due to visit Israel but his visit has been postponed more than once. Egypt is itself unhappy about the extremism of Hamas and its effect on extremists in Egypt which threaten the government. So the Egyptians are keen to help with negotiations and to seek a ceasefire. They will be rewarded by military aid from the US. Amos Gilad, a leading light in Israel’s security establishment has visited Suleiman in Egypt. Apparently Israel has agreed to more Egyptian forces moving to Sinai and to the Rafah border being opened under the control of a joint commission composed of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, the EU and the UN. This arrangement could provide a foundation for a ceasefire. Both Hamas and the PA have accepted this agreement, which has been brokered by Egypt. But Hamas is demanding an end to the economic siege of Gaza, which is not fully acceptable to Israel. Hamas also wants its own supporters involved at the Rafah crossing which is a problem for Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. However, it seems that Hamas may be happy with a low-key involvement, allowing Salam Fayyad, PA prime minister, to oversee the security forces, and this may prove acceptable to the PA. 

Another helpful move is that Israel and Egypt have agreed that Egypt should largely take over from Israel as the main electricity supplier to Gaza.

However, there is no room for complacency about terrorism. On the Israeli side some very inflammatory statements have emerged from the Israeli right wing concerning revenge for the attack on the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva. Rabbi Dov Lior, a graduate of the yeshiva, now head of the Council of Rabbis of Judea and Samaria, pronounced in 2004 that the IDF was justified in killing innocent people. On the Palestinian side, Israel claims to have intelligence of a number of planned terrorist attacks. Their main concern is at the possibility of a combined Hezbollah, Syrian, Iranian response to the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh.

According to the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar, which is linked with Hezbollah, Syria has conveyed to Israel its willingness to hold peace talks, on condition that there is a ceasefire with the Palestinians, that Israel is willing to withdraw from all “occupied Arab territories” and that simultaneous peace talks take place with the Palestinians and the Lebanese. An Arab summit will take place in Damascus between March 25^th and 30^th.

Meanwhile the Israeli- Palestinian peace talks have resumed

PRAYER TOPICS

1. For an effective ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. 2. For the failure of revenge attacks by either right wing Israelis or extreme Palestinians. 3. For God to prosper helpful moves by the Arab nations, especially Egypt. 4. For peace between Israel and Syria.

On the other hand, the Israeli town of Sderot has been on the receiving end of a total of 7694 rockets which have caused injury and death and which have made the population live in constant fear.  No country can allow its innocent civilians to be indiscriminately attacked in this way. Some Israeli response was inevitable.

However, Israel has come under widespread criticism for a disproportionate response to the rocket attacks from Gaza.  UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon told the Security Council: “While recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself, I condemn the disproportionate and excessive use of force that has killed an injured so many civilians, including children. I condemn Palestinian rocket attacks, and call for the immediate cessation of such acts of terrorism, which serve no purpose, endanger Israeli civilians, and bring misery to the Palestinian people.”

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert responded to this criticism by saying: “I hear criticism and claims that civilians are being hurt and that Israel is using too much force. Israel is defending its residents in the south, and with all due respect, nothing will prevent it from protecting them - and no one has the right to preach to us over actions that are in self defence.”

     3.  Pray that Israel and Hamas will find a way to talk which does not appear to imply the violence has    been successful.     4.  Pray that Egypt and moderate Arab states will resume their peace initiatives and co-operate positively with the western powers.     5.  Pray for the suffering innocent people on both sides: the fearful, the injured and the bereaved.

The news from the Holy Land is currently dominated by reactions to the assassination of Imad Mughniyah in Damascus. He was the top military commander in Hezbollah. Over the years, in addition to organising attacks on Jewish and Israeli targets, he has organised attacks American marines and the hijacking of US citizens. Therefore he was at the top of the FBI’s Most Wanted list. His death is a huge blow to Hezbollah and must be worrying for Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, because Mughniyah was part of his personal security forces.

Israel has denied any involvement in this daring attack in the middle of Damascus. Others think the assassination was carried out by the US or Syria, or resulted from internal strife in Hezbollah. The Kuwaiti daily newspaper Al-Rai blames “an Arab state” funded by the Gulf States.

Even if Israel is not responsible, and some Israelis doubt that, Hezbollah is making it a reason for an attack on Israel or possibly a Jewish target elsewhere. It can hardly do otherwise if it is to retain credibility in the Arab world.  The Israelis have mounted Patriot air defence missiles near Haifa.

Nasrallah has promised that Mughniyah’s blood “will lead to Israel’s fall.” An Iranian military leader stated: “In the near future, we will witness the destruction of the cancerous germ of Israel by the powerful and competent hands of the Hezbollah combatants.”

However Nasrallah has to bear in mind Hezbollah’s need to appear a legitimate Lebanese political party. This has restrained his terrorist activity in the past. It may discourage him from attacking Israeli or Jewish targets outside Israel, which he has not done since 1994.  If he mounted a massive rocket attack on Israel he would suffer severe retaliation which would not improve his popularity in Lebanon.  A token attack on Israel would not maintain his credibility.  He might send an unmanned drone loaded with explosives over Israel. The Israelis have shot several down already.  Israelis speculate that he might bomb an Israeli embassy in Africa or Asia, attack an El-Al plane, assassinate an Israeli leader or perform some other spectacular attack.

Israeli commentators say that, if Israel is responsible, they need to learn from history that such high-profile assassinations don’t achieve anything. In fact they lead to harsh retaliation and the people who take over from those killed have often proved worse than they were.

Hamas is enjoying an increased popularity resulting from its recent successes, namely:

a. Its landslide election victory amongst the Palestinians

b. It’s well-planned takeover of Gaza

c. It’s equally well-planned destruction of the wall between Gaza and Egypt which humiliated both the Israelis and the Egyptians.

Now, after every IDF reprisal attack on Gaza, Hamas fires a barrage of rockets into Israel for several days. Israel has suffered casualties, including an 8-year old boy who has lost one leg and might lose the other. Palestinians have also been killed and injured. Israel has complained to the UN Security Council about the rocket attacks.The Egyptians have warned that any Palestinian crossing the border will have his legs broken, but they are maintaining dialogue with Hamas because the organisation has extensive influence in the Arab press. The Egyptians are afraid that Israel is trying to dump Gaza on them so that it becomes an Egyptian problem. They see Hamas as furthering that plan.

IDF reprisals on Gaza continue and attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders are being stepped up. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak stated that Israel aims to destroy Hamas in Gaza.

 Israel is considering the possibility of allowing an international force in Gaza. But it is thought that countries would only agree to send troops if Gaza were stabilized through the demise of Hamas.

The spectre of a major Israeli military attack on Gaza looms. Israeli PM Ehud Olmert has survived the Winograd Report. Prior to that, political instability in Israel discouraged such an invasion. In addition there is the increase in Qassam attacks, the Dimona bomb and the Hamas threats of further terrorism. It is known that the IDF are making preparations. Obviously no sovereign state can sit by and allow its innocent citizens to be killed and maimed by attacks from adjoining territories. But such a military attack on Gaza would cause a great deal of bloodshed.

And yet, the constant vicious circle of attacks and reprisals will achieve nothing positive. If only Hamas, or the Gaza population, would realise that the attacks on Israel will not achieve their ideal purposes. Israel is not going away. On the other hand, Israel could seek to improve the lot of the Gazans by stopping the reduction of supply of electricity etc., and perhaps by opening the border under strict security controls. Could this undermine popular support for Hamas and force them to negotiate? Maybe Israel should remember that the amount of their exports to Palestinians is second only to their exports to the US.

Meanwhile, the Syrians have acquired more sophisticated missiles and other military hardware. Hezbollah has smuggled may Katyusha rockets into Southern Lebanon under the noses of the UN security forces. 

PRAYER TOPICS

1. For the population on both sides to become sickened by the vicious cycle of bloodshed and to press their leadership to negotiate.

2. For Hamas and the Gazan population to realise the attacks will not achieve the aim of removing Israel, but rather will continue to bring suffering upon themselves.  3. That Israel will take action to improve the lot of the people of Gaza so that a military strike on Gaza, and an increase in terrorism in Israel, might be avoided.

It was only to be expected. Israel was on full alert. The breaking down of the wall between Gaza and Egypt left the border open for 12 days, enough time for numerous terrorists to infiltrate Israel from the Sinai across the 300km border with the Negev Desert. Some had been arrested by the Egyptians in Sinai.

At 10.30am on Monday February 4th, for the first time for a year, a suicide bomber blew himself up in a shopping mall in Dimona, the town adjacent to Israel’s nuclear facility. Another suicide bomber was knocked out by the blast and was shot dead before he could detonate his own bomb. A 73 year old woman was killed and dozens injured.

It is a real cause of concern that various groups claimed responsibility: the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and (for the first time since 2004) Hamas. The worry is that this indicates that all these groups had sent terrorists into Sinai and genuinely believed the two bombers were theirs. This would confirm that numerous terrorists have infiltrated.

With Hamas agreement Egypt closed the border on Sunday February 3rd, erecting barbed wire and spikes set in concrete. However the absolute closure, which left some Gazans still in Egypt, led to violence in which 44 people, Gazans and Egyptians, were wounded. So Egypt re-opened the border. Egypt is taking a difficult route, negotiating with Hamas and yet refusing to accept them as the legitimate government of Palestine.

Hamas have asked Egypt to take over from Israel providing goods for Gaza. This would, of course, remove the economic weapon from Israel. Egypt hasn’t rejected the idea but it would face strong opposition from Fatah and the US. It would also have to accept responsibility for the economic welfare of Gaza.

Egypt wants Hamas and Fatah to co-operate in policing the border, with EU monitors. The EU monitors were withdrawn after the Hamas takeover of Gaza. Javier Solan, EU foreign policy spokesman, said the monitors could return if all parties agreed.

Meanwhile Shas, the right wing Israeli political party, has called on the government to cease negotiations with the Palestinians and to concentrate on building a fence across the 300km border with Egypt. The Israeli cabinet says it will do so by 2010 at the earliest at a cost of some $400-750 million. Others are calling for a harder line to be taken against Gaza.

PRAYER TOPICS

1. For the traumatized and frightened people of Dimona and security for the people of Israel.

2. For the people of Gaza, still finding it difficult to obtain the necessities of life and for their protection from violence.

3. For God to frustrate the evil intentions of men and women of violence.

4. For proper control of the Gaza-Egypt border, perhaps with EU monitors.

5. For a successful government overseeing both the West Bank and Gaza, fostering peace negotiations, human welfare and extensively reducing violence.

6. For constructive relationships between Israel and Egypt.

7. For the peace negotiations to continue.

New from the Holy Land in the last 10 days has been dominated by two events. The first was the breaking down of the wall between Gaza and Egypt by Hamas. The other was the final report of the Winograd Report by the Israeli committee set up to consider what went wrong in the recent Lebanon War.

THE DESTRUCTION OF THE GAZA WALL  The blowing up of the wall at 3am on January 22nd was clearly well-planned over a period of months. The wall had been weakened so it would fall easily. 

From a humanitarian point of view, it allowed the people of Gaza to escape from the confines of the Strip to purchase necessities for life in Egyptian shops. Tens of thousands did so. The Egyptians, partly because they are sensitive to the threat from the extreme Islamists in their own country, and doubtless partly for humanitarian reasons allowed this to last for six days before they ordered the shops to close, cut off supplies to them and began to reseal the border.

From a political point of view, it was a coup for Hamas:

• Showing their organisation, discipline and determination.

• Humiliating Israel and undermining the Israel blockade.

• Impressing Egypt with its strength and its need to be taken seriously.

• Putting strains on the important relationship between Israel and Egypt.

• Possibly allowing terrorists to infiltrate the Sinai and to seek to enter Israel.

Egypt has so far failed to get Hamas and Fatah to dialogue. Each group wants to control the border between Gaza and Egypt. 

Israel is considering building a security fence along the border between Israel and Egypt. It opposes Mahmoud Abbas’s desire to control the Gaza-Egypt border, but Hamas would doubtless prevent that happening anyway. Israel has restated that it will not allow a humanitarian crisis to happen in Gaza although the High Court has approved some reduction being made in electrical power being supplied to Gaza.

THE WINOGRAD REPORT  Meanwhile, in Israel the long-awaited Winograd report blames mainly the IDF for the failures in the Lebanon War. “Israel embarked on a long war, which it initiated, and which ended without Israel achieving a clear military victory ….. A paramilitary organization of several thousand fighters stood for a number of weeks before the most powerful army in the Middle East, which enjoyed complete air superiority and great advantages in size and technology. The rocket attacks of Hezbollah against the Israeli home front continued throughout the entire war and the IDF did not provide an effective counter to this.” 

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his government were then seriously criticized and doubtless calls for his resignation will continue. However he claims the report “lifted the moral stigma” from him. The importance if this issue is that a stable and credible prime minister is needed if the peace process is to continue.  It may be that Olmert will survive in office and be able to facilitate this.

In an appendix, Winograd said that the way Israel has been using cluster bombs was contrary to international law, so it needs to consider whether it wishes to continue using them but legally.

TRAUMAS ON BOTH SIDES 

Two quotations from Israel writers are helpful:

Speaking of the enormous pressure and deprivation visited on the Palestinians in Gaza (lack of water and other necessities, a public health crisis when sewage pumps stopped working, etc) one writes: “Collective punishment is abhorrent. It is morally reprehensible. It is functionally self-defeating. It destroys the moral fibre of those who order it, practice it, countenance it, turn a blind eye to it and those who are subjected to it.” 

Speaking of the traumas experienced by Israelis within range of Gazan Qassam rockets another writes: “Thousands and thousands of people, many of them children and the elderly, are plunged into a reality in which they must fear for their lives day in and day out, in which their livelihoods are crippled, with their schools and even pre-schools under siege. Entire communities are trapped, paralyzed. Whole childhoods are spent in a state of post-traumatic stress. Occasions that should be high points in a lifetime are routinely curtailed or cancelled.”

PRAYER TOPICS

1. For the welfare of both the innocent people of Gaza subject to pressure from Israel and the innocent Israelis subject to indiscriminate Qassam or terrorist attacks.

2. For Hamas to accept the existence of Israel, for a ceasefire and for dialogue.
3. For dialogue and a just settlement between Fatah and Hamas. 

4. For good relations between Israel and Egypt.

5. For political stability and effectiveness in Israel, that will further the peace process.

6. For an end to terrorist attacks, the use of Qassam rockets and of cluster bombs.